U19 World Cup represents an acid test for Duckworth Lewis
Heavy rains and no reserve days, apart from the final, mean that the Duckworth Lewis method is likely to be employed with an unprecedented frequency in this Youth World Cup
Charlie Austin
15-Jan-2000
Heavy rains and no reserve days, apart from the final, mean that the
Duckworth Lewis method is likely to be employed with an unprecedented
frequency in this Youth World Cup. Never before has the method played
such an important role in an international tournament.
The Duckworth Lewis method is a technique that is now being widely
used to recalculate the target in the event of rain. The strength of
the Duckworth method is the fact that it is able to take account of
wickets lost, runs required and overs remaining. At the start of a run
chase a side has a total number of resources (50 overs and 10
wickets). When wickets are lost and overs are completed the total
resources available to the batting are similarly reduced. At the end
of the first innings a Duckworth calculation is made and a unique
table is constructed. If there is more than one interruption then more
calculations will have to be made.
In the 1999 World Cup, which was held in the U.K., the Duckworth Lewis
method was used. However the existence of reserve days, ensured that
the technique was employed rarely. In the Zimbabwe- West Indies game
at the NCC ground, it had to be used when play was called off with 19
overs remaining.
Unfortunately the system, despite being superior to simple run rate
calculations, is extremely complicated and can produce quirky targets.
The other interesting factor is that Duckworth Lewis affected matches
will not be used in Net Run Rate calculations. Thus any interruption
of play for more than 40 minutes will immediately prevent its use in
net ran rate calculations.
With the technique likely to be used frequently in the tournament, the
biggest test is yet to come for the method. The questions raised are:
is it too complicated? How will it affect strategy? Will the toss now
be more important? Will the sides have to hire the services of
mathematicians?
The other question mark that looms in the minds of those present here
is, does the BCCSL have the capacity to carry out these calculations?
The farcical situations that have so far arisen with the official
scoring suggest, that they may not, and that we may be in for plenty
of confusion over the next fortnight.
Whilst the method may be fairest it should be used as a last resort.
With no reserve days scheduled, we are faced with the prospect of a
multitude of unfinished matches. This will be bad for the players, the
spectators and cricket. However don't blame Mr Duckworth, blame the
organisers.